Recently, on the Get Blue blog, they posted an analysis of check in data and illustrated how it was strongly correlated with Box Office success for the weekend of 5/27 to 5/29. 

Here were the top movies by check-ins:

And how they correlated with Box Office Gross (r value of .95):

This is some pretty interesting data, and presentation. In March 2011 (the most recent data I could find quickly) comscore reports that 16.7 million smart phone users utilize check in services.

Of those 16.7 million smartphones that use check-in services the demographic break down as so:

58.5% of Check In subscribers are 18-34, fairly evenly split between Male and Female (48% / 52%)

15,508 18-34 year olds, “checking-in” accurately correlates with weekend box office. 

Let’s think about these implications –

Checking-in could predict, with some accuracy, how people spend their time and money.

Obviously, we do not have anything beyond correlations to figure out the value of these digital behaviors, but its very exciting to see  these kinds of linkages being drawn. 

Combining this data with other points paints an even fuller picture of the value of checking in –

Let’s look at traffic to the movies respective websites, in the month of May:

The Hangover (9,964 Check-Ins, 86 Million, Visits peak 5/26 – 5/28)

1. A traffic spike over the opening weekend

 

Kung Fu Panda 2 (7,078 Check-Ins, 47.8 Million, Visits peak 5/23 – 5/24)

1. Traffic spike week before the opening weekend. 

 

 

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (3,417 Check-Ins, 39.6 Million, Visits peak 5/19 – 5/21)

1. Traffic spike two days before opening.  

 

Something Borrowed (2,175 Check-Ins, 1.86 Million, Visits peak 5/05 – 5/06)

 

1. Traffic spike two days before opening.  

 

Bridesmaids (1,216 Check-Ins, 9.4 Million, Visits peak 5/12 – 5/13)

 

The movies which received the most check-ins, and grossed the highest amount, also saw website traffic peak. Across all the movies, traffic peaked days (Tuesday, Wenesday, or Thursday) before opening weekend.

So what does all of this mean? 

Here are a few thoughts:

• The same kind of analysis that was done for these “check-ins” on Get Glue, could probably be done for website traffic, impressions or a variety of other digital quantifications of buzz. 
• To me, the Check-In behavior means signficantly more (these people have spent money to see a movie), but other measurements can predict trends in a similar fashion. 
• It is fascinating that such a small subset of the population, sending 26,000 Check-Ins can accurately represent the the movie going public. 

We can ask questions like –

Was the drop-off in Check-Ins similar to the drop-off in revenue after opening weekend?

This is really part of the ongoing quest to understand the complicated power of word of mouth marketing, finding takeaways that can make marketing, entertianment, and customer experience more valuable. 

Will Check-In data ever be as viable as a carefully selected random sample group? 

Hmmmm….